Rule Collider

Backtests · GOLD · x_silver_rsi · long

Does x_silver_rsi above 50.952 work on GOLD? 2023 to 2026 backtest

GOLD long when SILVER RSI (14) is above the threshold, tested at five thresholds taken from the feature’s own distribution on GOLD over this window: its 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles. Window 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-30, the last 30 percent held out of sample; stop 2.5 ATR, target 3 R, held overnight, max spread 30 pips, one-minute confirmation 2 pips, no hour filter. Fills and spread as measured on a demo fleet (how a result is judged). The direction and the exit are the ones the research catalogue carried for this pair; the thresholds are not.

Five thresholds, one rule shape

PercentileConditionIn sample R / tradesOut of sample R / tradestTrades to confirmLast quarter R / tradesVerdict
p10x_silver_rsi > 36.009-195.0 R / 3171-165.5 R / 1226-2.9573-64.3 R / 420Active, net negative
p25x_silver_rsi > 43.071-126.1 R / 2981-128.0 R / 1134-2.3827-58.9 R / 381Active, net negative
p50x_silver_rsi > 50.952-154.7 R / 2710-136.1 R / 1086-2.5671-47.8 R / 360Active, net negative
p75x_silver_rsi > 58.641-122.8 R / 2204-73.6 R / 871-1.51,558-4.3 R / 267No edge shown
p90x_silver_rsi > 65.545+33.4 R / 1348+7.4 R / 5850.274,002+9.1 R / 182Net positive, not distinguishable from chance

R is the risk on one trade. The out-of-sample split carries the verdict: below 100 trades it is “no edge shown” whatever the t; a positive mean with t below 2 is “net positive, not yet distinguishable from chance”; the last column is how many trades that mean would need to reach t = 2.

Each threshold in full

x_silver_rsi > 36.009 (p10)

Honesty panelActive, net negative

Traded 1226 times out of sample, net negative beyond chance (-165.5 R, -0.135 R per trade, t = -2.9); still active in the last quarter (-64.3 R over 420 trades).

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
-195.0 R
3171 trades · 33% wins
-0.061 R per trade · t = -2.1, beyond chance
about 2,948 trades to confirm this mean (-0.061 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 3171
spread 0.103 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
-165.5 R
1226 trades · 30% wins
-0.135 R per trade · t = -2.9, beyond chance
about 573 trades to confirm this mean (-0.135 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 1226
spread 0.064 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
-64.3 R
420 trades · 28% wins
-0.153 R per trade · t = -1.9, within chance
about 458 trades to confirm this mean (-0.153 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 420
spread 0.084 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.092 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum (more than the trades made before spread); 772 fills in measured hot hours (01:00 at 3.9 times). Fill offset 0.08 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 732 demo fills. Note: the symbol's quoting precision changed on 2025-08-04; the spread field is converted with the point of each era. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read -181.1 R (-0.148 R per trade over 1226 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 4,633 signals placed, 4,397 filled, 236 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 91.1 pips, 2.50 ATR, 30 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3 R; exits 65% at the stop, 22% at the target, 14% at the day end.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (1,341 bars); max spread 30 pips (1 bars over it); M1 confirmation 2 pips (877 signals rejected).

Monthly R, x_silver_rsi > 36.009 on GOLDOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: +11.3 R over 132 trades2023-102023-11: -15.5 R over 123 trades2023-12: +3.1 R over 122 trades2024-01: -23.3 R over 147 trades2024-02: -27.5 R over 129 trades2024-03: +14.1 R over 98 trades2024-04: -25.5 R over 141 trades2024-042024-05: -39.5 R over 143 trades2024-06: -27.1 R over 133 trades2024-07: +7.7 R over 138 trades2024-08: +0.6 R over 133 trades2024-09: +9.0 R over 128 trades2024-10: +8.1 R over 127 trades2024-102024-11: +1.2 R over 107 trades2024-12: -28.6 R over 132 trades2025-01: +2.2 R over 121 trades2025-02: -0.5 R over 115 trades2025-03: +15.1 R over 68 trades2025-04: +8.9 R over 114 trades2025-042025-05: -22.6 R over 127 trades2025-06: -28.5 R over 131 trades2025-07: -25.7 R over 157 trades2025-08: -25.1 R over 131 trades2025-09: +16.5 R over 131 trades2025-10: +0.9 R over 134 trades2025-102025-11: +12.7 R over 109 trades2025-12: +1.5 R over 127 trades2026-01: +9.5 R over 109 trades2026-02: +1.0 R over 92 trades2026-03: -37.9 R over 69 trades2026-04: -22.0 R over 122 trades2026-042026-05: -16.8 R over 75 trades2026-06: -53.7 R over 112 trades2026-07: -37.4 R over 148 trades2026-08: +12.8 R over 130 trades2026-09: -39.7 R over 142 trades+17 R-54 R

x_silver_rsi > 43.071 (p25)

Honesty panelActive, net negative

Traded 1134 times out of sample, net negative beyond chance (-128.0 R, -0.113 R per trade, t = -2.3); still active in the last quarter (-58.9 R over 381 trades).

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
-126.1 R
2981 trades · 33% wins
-0.042 R per trade · t = -1.4, within chance
about 6,288 trades to confirm this mean (-0.042 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 2981
spread 0.102 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
-128.0 R
1134 trades · 30% wins
-0.113 R per trade · t = -2.3, beyond chance
about 827 trades to confirm this mean (-0.113 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 1134
spread 0.062 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
-58.9 R
381 trades · 29% wins
-0.155 R per trade · t = -1.9, within chance
about 443 trades to confirm this mean (-0.155 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 381
spread 0.082 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.091 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum (more than the trades made before spread); 687 fills in measured hot hours (01:00 at 3.9 times). Fill offset 0.08 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 732 demo fills. Note: the symbol's quoting precision changed on 2025-08-04; the spread field is converted with the point of each era. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read -142.1 R (-0.125 R per trade over 1134 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 4,362 signals placed, 4,115 filled, 247 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 89.3 pips, 2.50 ATR, 27 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3 R; exits 64% at the stop, 22% at the target, 14% at the day end.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (1,950 bars); max spread 30 pips (3 bars over it); M1 confirmation 2 pips (914 signals rejected).

Monthly R, x_silver_rsi > 43.071 on GOLDOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: +13.3 R over 126 trades2023-102023-11: -17.6 R over 116 trades2023-12: -3.1 R over 119 trades2024-01: -32.5 R over 145 trades2024-02: -9.3 R over 115 trades2024-03: +17.1 R over 85 trades2024-04: -10.2 R over 121 trades2024-042024-05: -32.1 R over 139 trades2024-06: -22.0 R over 130 trades2024-07: -4.4 R over 133 trades2024-08: +11.2 R over 127 trades2024-09: +16.6 R over 122 trades2024-10: +7.7 R over 118 trades2024-102024-11: -2.5 R over 112 trades2024-12: -20.5 R over 117 trades2025-01: -9.4 R over 126 trades2025-02: +2.9 R over 103 trades2025-03: +15.7 R over 60 trades2025-04: +0.5 R over 113 trades2025-042025-05: -6.8 R over 112 trades2025-06: -21.9 R over 124 trades2025-07: -21.3 R over 137 trades2025-08: -21.6 R over 126 trades2025-09: +28.4 R over 125 trades2025-10: +0.1 R over 124 trades2025-102025-11: +8.7 R over 106 trades2025-12: -5.1 R over 119 trades2026-01: +17.3 R over 95 trades2026-02: +3.8 R over 86 trades2026-03: -31.2 R over 77 trades2026-04: -11.7 R over 101 trades2026-042026-05: -7.8 R over 66 trades2026-06: -48.0 R over 109 trades2026-07: -37.8 R over 133 trades2026-08: +6.2 R over 125 trades2026-09: -27.3 R over 123 trades+28 R-48 R

x_silver_rsi > 50.952 (p50)

Honesty panelActive, net negative

Traded 1086 times out of sample, net negative beyond chance (-136.1 R, -0.125 R per trade, t = -2.5); still active in the last quarter (-47.8 R over 360 trades).

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
-154.7 R
2710 trades · 32% wins
-0.057 R per trade · t = -1.8, within chance
about 3,430 trades to confirm this mean (-0.057 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 2710
spread 0.096 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
-136.1 R
1086 trades · 29% wins
-0.125 R per trade · t = -2.5, beyond chance
about 671 trades to confirm this mean (-0.125 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 1086
spread 0.059 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
-47.8 R
360 trades · 29% wins
-0.133 R per trade · t = -1.5, within chance
about 607 trades to confirm this mean (-0.133 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 360
spread 0.078 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.085 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum (more than the trades made before spread); 535 fills in measured hot hours (01:00 at 3.9 times). Fill offset 0.08 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 732 demo fills. Note: the symbol's quoting precision changed on 2025-08-04; the spread field is converted with the point of each era. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read -149.0 R (-0.137 R per trade over 1086 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 4,031 signals placed, 3,796 filled, 235 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 86.0 pips, 2.50 ATR, 15 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3 R; exits 65% at the stop, 22% at the target, 13% at the day end.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (3,182 bars); max spread 30 pips (3 bars over it); M1 confirmation 2 pips (870 signals rejected).

Monthly R, x_silver_rsi > 50.952 on GOLDOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: +9.1 R over 114 trades2023-102023-11: -12.2 R over 96 trades2023-12: -4.4 R over 103 trades2024-01: -24.1 R over 126 trades2024-02: -17.5 R over 100 trades2024-03: +19.8 R over 87 trades2024-04: -19.4 R over 111 trades2024-042024-05: -45.1 R over 135 trades2024-06: -5.7 R over 97 trades2024-07: -0.9 R over 110 trades2024-08: -3.7 R over 120 trades2024-09: -6.5 R over 109 trades2024-10: +18.4 R over 115 trades2024-102024-11: +0.3 R over 95 trades2024-12: -24.5 R over 102 trades2025-01: -4.6 R over 112 trades2025-02: +6.1 R over 95 trades2025-03: +10.0 R over 83 trades2025-04: -1.2 R over 101 trades2025-042025-05: -3.9 R over 113 trades2025-06: -35.1 R over 123 trades2025-07: -16.6 R over 120 trades2025-08: -25.6 R over 115 trades2025-09: +33.2 R over 108 trades2025-10: +5.4 R over 113 trades2025-102025-11: +13.9 R over 101 trades2025-12: -14.3 R over 129 trades2026-01: +18.9 R over 82 trades2026-02: -1.7 R over 82 trades2026-03: -26.5 R over 62 trades2026-04: -18.4 R over 108 trades2026-042026-05: -17.5 R over 66 trades2026-06: -48.7 R over 103 trades2026-07: -18.9 R over 115 trades2026-08: +7.6 R over 119 trades2026-09: -36.5 R over 126 trades+33 R-49 R

x_silver_rsi > 58.641 (p75)

Honesty panelNo edge shown

No edge shown out of sample: -73.6 R over 871 trades is -0.085 R per trade, within what chance produces (t = -1.5); about 1,558 trades would be needed to confirm this mean at t = -2, shown: 871.

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
-122.8 R
2204 trades · 32% wins
-0.056 R per trade · t = -1.6, within chance
about 3,619 trades to confirm this mean (-0.056 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 2204
spread 0.088 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
-73.6 R
871 trades · 30% wins
-0.085 R per trade · t = -1.5, within chance
about 1,558 trades to confirm this mean (-0.085 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 871
spread 0.054 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
-4.3 R
267 trades · 31% wins
-0.016 R per trade · t = -0.2, within chance
about 45,346 trades to confirm this mean (-0.016 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 267
spread 0.070 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.079 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum (more than the trades made before spread); 341 fills in measured hot hours (01:00 at 3.9 times). Fill offset 0.08 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 732 demo fills. Note: the symbol's quoting precision changed on 2025-08-04; the spread field is converted with the point of each era. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read -83.0 R (-0.095 R per trade over 871 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 3,280 signals placed, 3,075 filled, 205 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 81.7 pips, 2.50 ATR, 13 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3 R; exits 65% at the stop, 22% at the target, 12% at the day end.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (6,303 bars); max spread 30 pips (7 bars over it); M1 confirmation 2 pips (636 signals rejected).

Monthly R, x_silver_rsi > 58.641 on GOLDOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: -1.8 R over 93 trades2023-102023-11: -7.7 R over 79 trades2023-12: -8.8 R over 84 trades2024-01: -16.0 R over 102 trades2024-02: -17.5 R over 89 trades2024-03: -10.3 R over 84 trades2024-04: -13.2 R over 92 trades2024-042024-05: -42.3 R over 115 trades2024-06: -10.6 R over 79 trades2024-07: +11.3 R over 81 trades2024-08: -11.9 R over 98 trades2024-09: +0.2 R over 87 trades2024-10: +6.0 R over 91 trades2024-102024-11: +10.2 R over 76 trades2024-12: -14.6 R over 78 trades2025-01: +10.0 R over 84 trades2025-02: -12.3 R over 87 trades2025-03: +6.1 R over 76 trades2025-04: -1.9 R over 89 trades2025-042025-05: +8.9 R over 84 trades2025-06: -17.9 R over 94 trades2025-07: -17.1 R over 103 trades2025-08: -15.4 R over 82 trades2025-09: +31.6 R over 79 trades2025-10: +16.6 R over 93 trades2025-102025-11: -0.8 R over 84 trades2025-12: -13.6 R over 115 trades2026-01: +21.7 R over 77 trades2026-02: -4.0 R over 71 trades2026-03: -28.6 R over 64 trades2026-04: -7.7 R over 76 trades2026-042026-05: -12.6 R over 53 trades2026-06: -28.2 R over 69 trades2026-07: -2.9 R over 80 trades2026-08: +13.4 R over 99 trades2026-09: -14.7 R over 88 trades+32 R-42 R

x_silver_rsi > 65.545 (p90)

Honesty panelNet positive, not distinguishable from chance

Net positive out of sample, not yet distinguishable from chance: +7.4 R over 585 trades is +0.013 R per trade, t = 0.2; about 74,002 trades would be needed to confirm this mean at t = 2, shown: 585; last quarter +9.1 R over 182 trades.

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
+33.4 R
1348 trades · 34% wins
+0.025 R per trade · t = 0.5, within chance
about 18,881 trades to confirm this mean (+0.025 R per trade) at t = 2 · shown: 1348
spread 0.081 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
+7.4 R
585 trades · 32% wins
+0.013 R per trade · t = 0.2, within chance
about 74,002 trades to confirm this mean (+0.013 R per trade) at t = 2 · shown: 585
spread 0.049 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
+9.1 R
182 trades · 32% wins
+0.050 R per trade · t = 0.4, within chance
about 4,827 trades to confirm this mean (+0.050 R per trade) at t = 2 · shown: 182
spread 0.063 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.071 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum (77% of the gross); 156 fills in measured hot hours (01:00 at 3.9 times). Fill offset 0.08 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 732 demo fills. Note: the symbol's quoting precision changed on 2025-08-04; the spread field is converted with the point of each era. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read +1.6 R (+0.003 R per trade over 585 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 2,090 signals placed, 1,933 filled, 157 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 82.5 pips, 2.50 ATR, 10 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3 R; exits 63% at the stop, 24% at the target, 13% at the day end.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (9,406 bars); max spread 30 pips (7 bars over it); M1 confirmation 2 pips (440 signals rejected).

Monthly R, x_silver_rsi > 65.545 on GOLDOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: +10.1 R over 49 trades2023-102023-11: -4.5 R over 55 trades2023-12: +1.2 R over 53 trades2024-01: -1.0 R over 56 trades2024-02: +3.1 R over 46 trades2024-03: -3.1 R over 53 trades2024-04: +4.0 R over 59 trades2024-042024-05: -3.2 R over 68 trades2024-06: -8.8 R over 49 trades2024-07: +20.7 R over 51 trades2024-08: +2.7 R over 57 trades2024-09: +2.3 R over 58 trades2024-10: +11.7 R over 62 trades2024-102024-11: -0.1 R over 51 trades2024-12: -27.1 R over 52 trades2025-01: +14.9 R over 51 trades2025-02: +6.1 R over 51 trades2025-03: -6.0 R over 46 trades2025-04: -8.4 R over 50 trades2025-042025-05: +3.8 R over 53 trades2025-06: -9.9 R over 45 trades2025-07: +7.6 R over 57 trades2025-08: -3.1 R over 52 trades2025-09: +16.5 R over 56 trades2025-10: +6.2 R over 65 trades2025-102025-11: +18.9 R over 53 trades2025-12: +4.7 R over 67 trades2026-01: +12.7 R over 63 trades2026-02: +5.7 R over 50 trades2026-03: -19.4 R over 44 trades2026-04: -6.5 R over 50 trades2026-042026-05: -3.5 R over 36 trades2026-06: -16.7 R over 43 trades2026-07: -1.8 R over 56 trades2026-08: +28.2 R over 70 trades2026-09: -17.3 R over 56 trades+28 R-27 R

What x_silver_rsi measures

SILVER RSI (14) (index), on M5 bars. RSI(14) of SILVER on M5 bars, 0 to 100.

Test your own variant

Rule Collider runs one rule on one symbol over years of broker M5 data with the fills and the spread a demo fleet measured, and shows the out-of-sample figure first. Early access goes to the waitlist in signup order.

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Historical simulation on broker M5 data with a measured fill offset, a measured spread factor, swap and a one-minute confirmation model. Past results do not predict future results. This is a research tool, not investment advice. Hours are broker time, the chart time in MT5. Built 2026-11-04 from runs ending 2026-09-30; refreshed monthly.