Rule Collider

Backtests · EURJPY · upper_wick_ratio · long

Does upper_wick_ratio below 0.2157 work on EURJPY? 2023 to 2026 backtest

EURJPY long when Upper wick to range is below the threshold, tested at five thresholds taken from the feature’s own distribution on EURJPY over this window: its 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles. Window 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-30, the last 30 percent held out of sample; stop 2.5 ATR, target 3.5 R, held overnight, max spread 3 pips, one-minute confirmation 1 pips, no hour filter. Fills and spread as measured on a demo fleet (how a result is judged). The direction and the exit are the ones the research catalogue carried for this pair; the thresholds are not.

Five thresholds, one rule shape

PercentileConditionIn sample R / tradesOut of sample R / tradestTrades to confirmLast quarter R / tradesVerdict
p10upper_wick_ratio < 0.01613-613.0 R / 2185-183.5 R / 702-4.0174-89.7 R / 243Active, net negative
p25upper_wick_ratio < 0.08108-726.2 R / 2584-229.6 R / 855-4.5170-111.8 R / 290Active, net negative
p50upper_wick_ratio < 0.2157-716.5 R / 2668-259.6 R / 917-4.9152-110.2 R / 296Active, net negative
p75upper_wick_ratio < 0.4-734.7 R / 2693-259.6 R / 920-4.9153-98.4 R / 289Active, net negative
p90upper_wick_ratio < 0.5846-764.8 R / 2711-264.0 R / 928-5.0151-105.3 R / 293Active, net negative

R is the risk on one trade. The out-of-sample split carries the verdict: below 100 trades it is “no edge shown” whatever the t; a positive mean with t below 2 is “net positive, not yet distinguishable from chance”; the last column is how many trades that mean would need to reach t = 2.

Each threshold in full

upper_wick_ratio < 0.01613 (p10)

Honesty panelActive, net negative

Traded 702 times out of sample, net negative beyond chance (-183.5 R, -0.261 R per trade, t = -4.0); still active in the last quarter (-89.7 R over 243 trades).

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
-613.0 R
2185 trades · 29% wins
-0.281 R per trade · t = -7.8, beyond chance
about 143 trades to confirm this mean (-0.281 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 2185
spread 0.097 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
-183.5 R
702 trades · 31% wins
-0.261 R per trade · t = -4.0, beyond chance
about 174 trades to confirm this mean (-0.261 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 702
spread 0.157 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
-89.7 R
243 trades · 28% wins
-0.369 R per trade · t = -3.4, beyond chance
about 82 trades to confirm this mean (-0.369 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 243
spread 0.176 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.112 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum. Fill offset 0.24 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 560 demo fills. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read -205.6 R (-0.293 R per trade over 702 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 3,555 signals placed, 2,887 filled, 668 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 20.5 pips, 2.61 ATR, 554 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3.5 R; exits 64% at the stop, 21% at the day end, 15% at the target.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (10,623 bars); max spread 3 pips (7,324 bars over it); M1 confirmation 1 pips (1,333 signals rejected).

Monthly R, upper_wick_ratio < 0.01613 on EURJPYOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: -22.5 R over 86 trades2023-102023-11: -11.7 R over 79 trades2023-12: -50.9 R over 103 trades2024-01: -11.3 R over 88 trades2024-02: -10.4 R over 84 trades2024-03: -20.7 R over 77 trades2024-04: +0.6 R over 80 trades2024-042024-05: -28.1 R over 86 trades2024-06: -10.6 R over 84 trades2024-07: -35.3 R over 96 trades2024-08: -22.9 R over 92 trades2024-09: -37.2 R over 102 trades2024-10: -20.5 R over 91 trades2024-102024-11: -44.4 R over 84 trades2024-12: -31.0 R over 101 trades2025-01: -47.6 R over 96 trades2025-02: -23.9 R over 81 trades2025-03: -11.7 R over 79 trades2025-04: -25.0 R over 78 trades2025-042025-05: -33.2 R over 85 trades2025-06: -2.9 R over 83 trades2025-07: -34.5 R over 98 trades2025-08: -29.0 R over 79 trades2025-09: -29.8 R over 78 trades2025-10: -9.3 R over 85 trades2025-102025-11: -4.6 R over 70 trades2025-12: -2.3 R over 90 trades2026-01: -23.9 R over 74 trades2026-02: +0.6 R over 65 trades2026-03: -19.4 R over 18 trades2026-04: -14.6 R over 42 trades2026-042026-05: -11.6 R over 37 trades2026-06: -27.1 R over 73 trades2026-07: -25.7 R over 79 trades2026-08: -9.4 R over 67 trades2026-09: -54.7 R over 97 trades+1 R-55 R

upper_wick_ratio < 0.08108 (p25)

Honesty panelActive, net negative

Traded 855 times out of sample, net negative beyond chance (-229.6 R, -0.269 R per trade, t = -4.5); still active in the last quarter (-111.8 R over 290 trades).

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
-726.2 R
2584 trades · 29% wins
-0.281 R per trade · t = -8.4, beyond chance
about 146 trades to confirm this mean (-0.281 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 2584
spread 0.097 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
-229.6 R
855 trades · 30% wins
-0.269 R per trade · t = -4.5, beyond chance
about 170 trades to confirm this mean (-0.269 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 855
spread 0.157 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
-111.8 R
290 trades · 27% wins
-0.385 R per trade · t = -3.9, beyond chance
about 75 trades to confirm this mean (-0.385 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 290
spread 0.175 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.112 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum. Fill offset 0.24 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 560 demo fills. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read -256.4 R (-0.300 R per trade over 855 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 4,235 signals placed, 3,439 filled, 796 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 20.6 pips, 2.60 ATR, 578 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3.5 R; exits 66% at the stop, 19% at the day end, 15% at the target.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (9,404 bars); max spread 3 pips (6,925 bars over it); M1 confirmation 1 pips (1,535 signals rejected).

Monthly R, upper_wick_ratio < 0.08108 on EURJPYOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: -30.5 R over 106 trades2023-102023-11: -22.2 R over 98 trades2023-12: -53.7 R over 115 trades2024-01: -19.0 R over 112 trades2024-02: -14.6 R over 94 trades2024-03: -21.8 R over 85 trades2024-04: -5.2 R over 90 trades2024-042024-05: -17.0 R over 85 trades2024-06: -33.5 R over 111 trades2024-07: -51.5 R over 115 trades2024-08: -19.7 R over 115 trades2024-09: -35.7 R over 128 trades2024-10: -38.7 R over 116 trades2024-102024-11: -52.8 R over 97 trades2024-12: -17.5 R over 113 trades2025-01: -42.8 R over 104 trades2025-02: -35.6 R over 100 trades2025-03: -31.9 R over 100 trades2025-04: -31.2 R over 92 trades2025-042025-05: -21.9 R over 94 trades2025-06: -5.0 R over 97 trades2025-07: -34.0 R over 117 trades2025-08: -34.7 R over 92 trades2025-09: -26.2 R over 95 trades2025-10: -20.8 R over 103 trades2025-102025-11: -9.7 R over 83 trades2025-12: -13.1 R over 109 trades2026-01: -12.5 R over 88 trades2026-02: -17.7 R over 86 trades2026-03: -19.6 R over 25 trades2026-04: -19.0 R over 58 trades2026-042026-05: -12.1 R over 39 trades2026-06: -22.8 R over 87 trades2026-07: -47.4 R over 96 trades2026-08: -7.4 R over 75 trades2026-09: -57.0 R over 119 trades+0 R-57 R

upper_wick_ratio < 0.2157 (p50)

Honesty panelActive, net negative

Traded 917 times out of sample, net negative beyond chance (-259.6 R, -0.283 R per trade, t = -4.9); still active in the last quarter (-110.2 R over 296 trades).

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
-716.5 R
2668 trades · 29% wins
-0.269 R per trade · t = -8.1, beyond chance
about 162 trades to confirm this mean (-0.269 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 2668
spread 0.097 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
-259.6 R
917 trades · 30% wins
-0.283 R per trade · t = -4.9, beyond chance
about 152 trades to confirm this mean (-0.283 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 917
spread 0.157 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
-110.2 R
296 trades · 28% wins
-0.372 R per trade · t = -3.8, beyond chance
about 81 trades to confirm this mean (-0.372 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 296
spread 0.173 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.112 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum. Fill offset 0.24 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 560 demo fills. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read -288.5 R (-0.315 R per trade over 917 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 4,380 signals placed, 3,585 filled, 795 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 20.8 pips, 2.60 ATR, 581 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3.5 R; exits 66% at the stop, 19% at the day end, 15% at the target.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (9,021 bars); max spread 3 pips (6,427 bars over it); M1 confirmation 1 pips (1,620 signals rejected).

Monthly R, upper_wick_ratio < 0.2157 on EURJPYOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: -25.9 R over 105 trades2023-102023-11: -19.5 R over 100 trades2023-12: -63.5 R over 128 trades2024-01: -16.1 R over 114 trades2024-02: -8.4 R over 91 trades2024-03: -20.7 R over 90 trades2024-04: -1.5 R over 91 trades2024-042024-05: -16.0 R over 90 trades2024-06: -18.6 R over 114 trades2024-07: -54.8 R over 123 trades2024-08: -23.8 R over 118 trades2024-09: -41.7 R over 139 trades2024-10: -32.6 R over 121 trades2024-102024-11: -63.9 R over 108 trades2024-12: -20.4 R over 112 trades2025-01: -44.9 R over 108 trades2025-02: -44.0 R over 106 trades2025-03: -35.3 R over 111 trades2025-04: -21.1 R over 91 trades2025-042025-05: -22.1 R over 97 trades2025-06: +1.8 R over 94 trades2025-07: -24.6 R over 105 trades2025-08: -27.7 R over 94 trades2025-09: -20.9 R over 92 trades2025-10: -40.2 R over 115 trades2025-102025-11: -9.0 R over 87 trades2025-12: -18.3 R over 116 trades2026-01: -18.0 R over 95 trades2026-02: -27.8 R over 101 trades2026-03: -22.5 R over 30 trades2026-04: -20.2 R over 61 trades2026-042026-05: -8.7 R over 39 trades2026-06: -34.9 R over 103 trades2026-07: -38.8 R over 93 trades2026-08: -5.9 R over 77 trades2026-09: -65.6 R over 126 trades+2 R-66 R

upper_wick_ratio < 0.4 (p75)

Honesty panelActive, net negative

Traded 920 times out of sample, net negative beyond chance (-259.6 R, -0.282 R per trade, t = -4.9); still active in the last quarter (-98.4 R over 289 trades).

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
-734.7 R
2693 trades · 29% wins
-0.273 R per trade · t = -8.2, beyond chance
about 159 trades to confirm this mean (-0.273 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 2693
spread 0.097 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
-259.6 R
920 trades · 30% wins
-0.282 R per trade · t = -4.9, beyond chance
about 153 trades to confirm this mean (-0.282 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 920
spread 0.159 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
-98.4 R
289 trades · 28% wins
-0.341 R per trade · t = -3.4, beyond chance
about 99 trades to confirm this mean (-0.341 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 289
spread 0.170 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.113 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum. Fill offset 0.24 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 560 demo fills. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read -288.8 R (-0.314 R per trade over 920 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 4,429 signals placed, 3,613 filled, 816 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 20.9 pips, 2.59 ATR, 594 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3.5 R; exits 66% at the stop, 19% at the day end, 15% at the target.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (8,938 bars); max spread 3 pips (6,036 bars over it); M1 confirmation 1 pips (1,608 signals rejected).

Monthly R, upper_wick_ratio < 0.4 on EURJPYOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: -26.0 R over 105 trades2023-102023-11: -17.6 R over 103 trades2023-12: -60.8 R over 127 trades2024-01: -19.4 R over 116 trades2024-02: -13.0 R over 93 trades2024-03: -18.0 R over 86 trades2024-04: -2.5 R over 97 trades2024-042024-05: -17.4 R over 95 trades2024-06: -17.8 R over 115 trades2024-07: -60.7 R over 121 trades2024-08: -27.0 R over 124 trades2024-09: -35.5 R over 135 trades2024-10: -34.4 R over 124 trades2024-102024-11: -55.2 R over 105 trades2024-12: -23.1 R over 118 trades2025-01: -46.4 R over 110 trades2025-02: -40.6 R over 104 trades2025-03: -35.1 R over 112 trades2025-04: -30.5 R over 90 trades2025-042025-05: -22.0 R over 93 trades2025-06: +0.3 R over 96 trades2025-07: -22.4 R over 106 trades2025-08: -31.4 R over 92 trades2025-09: -25.6 R over 98 trades2025-10: -41.0 R over 116 trades2025-102025-11: -12.6 R over 87 trades2025-12: -18.3 R over 117 trades2026-01: -25.5 R over 94 trades2026-02: -24.8 R over 104 trades2026-03: -24.7 R over 38 trades2026-04: -26.4 R over 66 trades2026-042026-05: -9.6 R over 40 trades2026-06: -30.7 R over 97 trades2026-07: -32.8 R over 91 trades2026-08: -2.4 R over 75 trades2026-09: -63.2 R over 123 trades+0 R-63 R

upper_wick_ratio < 0.5846 (p90)

Honesty panelActive, net negative

Traded 928 times out of sample, net negative beyond chance (-264.0 R, -0.284 R per trade, t = -5.0); still active in the last quarter (-105.3 R over 293 trades).

In sample
2023-09-30 to 2025-11-05
-764.8 R
2711 trades · 29% wins
-0.282 R per trade · t = -8.6, beyond chance
about 148 trades to confirm this mean (-0.282 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 2711
spread 0.097 R per trade
Out of sample
2025-11-05 to 2026-09-30
-264.0 R
928 trades · 30% wins
-0.284 R per trade · t = -5.0, beyond chance
about 151 trades to confirm this mean (-0.284 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 928
spread 0.159 R per trade
Last quarter
last 91 days of the window
-105.3 R
293 trades · 28% wins
-0.359 R per trade · t = -3.7, beyond chance
about 88 trades to confirm this mean (-0.359 R per trade) at t = -2 · shown: 293
spread 0.169 R per trade
Costs. Spread 0.113 R per trade at 1.25 times the bar’s minimum. Fill offset 0.24 stop-distances on every entry, measured on 560 demo fills. At 1.5 times the bar’s minimum the out-of-sample figure would read -293.4 R (-0.316 R per trade over 928 trades).

Entry: stop order 2 pips past the signal close, cancelled after 4 bars; 4,465 signals placed, 3,639 filled, 826 expired; trigger state, an entry on every bar the conditions hold while flat.

Exit: stop 2.5 ATR (mean 20.9 pips, 2.59 ATR, 600 raised to the 10-pip floor); target 3.5 R; exits 66% at the stop, 19% at the day end, 15% at the target.

Filters: signals on every weekday; no entries 22:00 to 01:00 broker time (8,887 bars); max spread 3 pips (5,816 bars over it); M1 confirmation 1 pips (1,565 signals rejected).

Monthly R, upper_wick_ratio < 0.5846 on EURJPYOne bar per month: the R earned that month; the held-out months in the full colour.2023-10: -31.6 R over 109 trades2023-102023-11: -22.0 R over 103 trades2023-12: -62.6 R over 129 trades2024-01: -21.6 R over 117 trades2024-02: -17.2 R over 98 trades2024-03: -19.2 R over 87 trades2024-04: -2.8 R over 98 trades2024-042024-05: -18.2 R over 92 trades2024-06: -16.7 R over 114 trades2024-07: -63.8 R over 124 trades2024-08: -31.9 R over 126 trades2024-09: -35.2 R over 135 trades2024-10: -34.2 R over 120 trades2024-102024-11: -56.4 R over 105 trades2024-12: -27.1 R over 120 trades2025-01: -50.0 R over 113 trades2025-02: -42.4 R over 105 trades2025-03: -30.7 R over 112 trades2025-04: -30.3 R over 93 trades2025-042025-05: -23.4 R over 94 trades2025-06: +4.7 R over 90 trades2025-07: -24.5 R over 107 trades2025-08: -31.4 R over 95 trades2025-09: -22.7 R over 96 trades2025-10: -42.1 R over 117 trades2025-102025-11: -9.2 R over 87 trades2025-12: -15.9 R over 115 trades2026-01: -23.8 R over 93 trades2026-02: -26.6 R over 108 trades2026-03: -24.9 R over 40 trades2026-04: -25.2 R over 67 trades2026-042026-05: -13.6 R over 40 trades2026-06: -30.9 R over 97 trades2026-07: -33.2 R over 91 trades2026-08: -2.3 R over 75 trades2026-09: -69.8 R over 127 trades+5 R-70 R

What upper_wick_ratio measures

Upper wick to range (fraction), on M5 bars. High minus the higher of open and close, divided by the bar's range.

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Rule Collider runs one rule on one symbol over years of broker M5 data with the fills and the spread a demo fleet measured, and shows the out-of-sample figure first. Early access goes to the waitlist in signup order.

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Historical simulation on broker M5 data with a measured fill offset, a measured spread factor, swap and a one-minute confirmation model. Past results do not predict future results. This is a research tool, not investment advice. Hours are broker time, the chart time in MT5. Built 2026-11-04 from runs ending 2026-09-30; refreshed monthly.